- Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2021-2025)
This report provides a long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows covering the next five years (2021-2025) as required by Article 247(1)(c) of the Financial Regulation1. The analysis takes into account the principles and terms set out in the Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community2(thereafter ‘Withdrawal Agreement’). The socioeconomic circumstances in the EU have significantly deteriorated as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, on 27 May 20203, the Commission presented a revised proposal for a reinforced Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2021-2027 and an ambitious recovery plan. This forecast report provides an estimate of the expenditure outflows under the ceilings of the next Multiannual Financial Framework and corresponding revenue inflows over the next five years based on the revised MFF proposal of May 2020. Compared to the forecast of last year4 which covered the period 2020-2024, this new forecast captures one additional year (2025). The estimates for the payments on the commitments of the current financial framework are updated to take account of the actual implementation results for 2019, the 2020 budget with the Amending Budgets N°1 and N°2 and the Draft Amending budgets N°3 to N°65, and the Draft Budget for 20216. The payments in relation to the post-2021 commitments, given that the negotiations for the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework are still on-going, are consistent with the parameters resulting from the state of negotiations and from the Commission proposal for the future financial period as revised this year.