최신자료
Dollar Dominance and International Spillovers of US Financial Shocks
한국은행은 미국 달러의 지배적 역할이 미국발 금융충격의 국제적 파급을 증폭시키는 과정을 분석한 보고서를 발표하였다.
This paper investigates how the global dominance of the US dollar amplifies the cross-border transmission of financial shocks originating in the United States. I develop a small open economy DSGE model that embeds the dollar’s central role in international trade and finance and calibrate it to the Korean economy. Key parameters are estimated by matching impulse responses to a shock in the excess bond premium (EBP), a standard measure of US financial conditions. The analysis shows that two core functions of the dollar in global finance―the role of dollar-denominated bonds as safe assets and the dollar’s centrality in financing working capital for global supply chains―constitute the primary channels through which US financial shocks spill over internationally. Absent these mechanisms, the output losses from US financial shocks would be more than two-thirds smaller. Finally, the results suggest that shifting trade invoicing from the dollar to the domestic currency can significantly dampen these spillovers as well, lowering the output losses by roughly one-fourth.
This paper investigates how the global dominance of the US dollar amplifies the cross-border transmission of financial shocks originating in the United States. I develop a small open economy DSGE model that embeds the dollar’s central role in international trade and finance and calibrate it to the Korean economy. Key parameters are estimated by matching impulse responses to a shock in the excess bond premium (EBP), a standard measure of US financial conditions. The analysis shows that two core functions of the dollar in global finance―the role of dollar-denominated bonds as safe assets and the dollar’s centrality in financing working capital for global supply chains―constitute the primary channels through which US financial shocks spill over internationally. Absent these mechanisms, the output losses from US financial shocks would be more than two-thirds smaller. Finally, the results suggest that shifting trade invoicing from the dollar to the domestic currency can significantly dampen these spillovers as well, lowering the output losses by roughly one-fourth.
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