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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2

The global economy has proved more resilient than expected this year, supported by improved financial conditions, rising AI-related investment and trade, and macroeconomic policies. However, underlying fragilities are increasing. Labour markets are showing first signs of weakening despite the OECD unemployment rate steady at 4.9%, with job vacancies falling below their 2019 average in many countries and confidence softening. Risks around the outlook remain significant, including the prospect of further trade barriers, a potential sharp repricing of risk in financial markets, potentially amplified by stresses in leveraged non-bank financial institutions and volatile crypto-asset markets. Lingering fiscal concerns could lead to further increases in long-term bond yields, which may tighten financial conditions and elevate debt-service burdens, potentially weighing on economic growth.

OECD 2025.12.11

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