Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea(WP 11-53) | 국외연구자료

KDI 경제교육·정보센터

Economic Information and Education Center

한국관련자료

Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea(WP 11-53)

IMF

2011.03.14

This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections. The framework also generates a data-driven reference band for the projections, and is therefore convenient to update. The framework is applied to the current World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast period and the Great Recession to compare its performance to past projections. Results show that the performance of the new framework often improves the forecasts, especially at quarterly frequency, and the forecasting exercise will be better informed by cross-checking with the new data-driven framework projections.

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KDI 경제교육·정보센터

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