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World Economy Autumn 2021: Stumbling blocks on the road to recovery
IFW 2021.09.28 원문보기
The global recovery has lost momentum in the first half of 2021 amid new bursts of Covid-19 and supply chain disruptions. We still expect world production to rebound strongly after an historic collapse in the previous year but we have lowered our forecast for global GDP growth from 6.7 to 5.9 as these factors continue to weigh on activity in the near future. In contrast, we are now slightly more upbeat for the coming year with global production growing by 5 percent (previously: 4.8 percent). Slowing towards the end of the forecast horizon we still expect strong global growth of 3.8 percent in 2023. Consumer price inflation has accelerated markedly over the course of the year, largely due to temporary factors. As such, we expect price pressures to ease in the coming year and monetary policy to remain accommodative. Nevertheless, there are upside risks to inflation as tensions in product markets and logistic networks or the large excess savings that households have amassed over the past year across many advanced economies could lead to a sustained rise in prices. In such a scenario, central banks would likely tighten policy considerably with negative consequences for the growth outlook
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