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Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks
ECB 2021.10.15 원문보기
We quantify the e?ects of wage bargaining shocks on macroeconomic aggregates using a structural vector auto-regression model for Germany. We identify exogenous variation in bargaining power from episodes of minimum wage introduction and industrial disputes. This narrative information disciplines the impulse responses to a wage bargaining shock of un-employment and output, and sharpens inference on the behaviour of other variables. The implied transmission mechanism is in line with the theoretical predictions of a large class of search and matching models. We also ?nd that wage bargaining shocks explain a sizeable share of aggregate ?uctuations in unemployment and in?ation, that their pass-through to prices is very close to being full, and that they imply plausible dynamics for the vacancy rate, ?rms’ pro?ts, and the labour share.
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