- Optimism is bad for fiscal outcomes
In the history of the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), some governments used optimism over medium-term growth to postpone fiscal adjustment or justify expansions. Back in 2011, EU member states were invited to strengthen their medium-term fiscal planning. However, EU surveillance is still very much centred on the year ahead and in several countries medium term plans remain moving targets built on faith. Multiannual expenditure paths would be a promising way to improve the medium-term orientation of fiscal policy and, by extension, fiscal performance. They deserve a thought or two in the ongoing debate around the European Commission’s review of EU economic governance.