Several shocks have hit a world economy already weakened by the pandemic. higher-than-expected inflation worldwide--especially in the United States and major European economies--triggering tighter financial conditions; a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China, reflecting COVID- 19 outbreaks and lockdowns; and further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine.
The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook. This year upward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. In 2023, disinflationary monetary policy is expected to bite, with global output growing by just 2.9 percent.
The risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside. The war in Ukraine could lead to a sudden stop of European gas imports from Russia A plausible alternative scenario in which risks materialize, inflation rises further, and global growth declines to about 2.6 percent and 2.0 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively, would put growth in the bottom 10 percent of outcomes since 1970.
With increasing prices continuing to squeeze living standards worldwide, taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers. And as the pandemic continues, vaccination rates must rise to guard against future variants. Finally, mitigating climate change continues to require urgent multilateral action to limit emissions and raise investments to hasten the green transition.