- Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - July 2022
Bank of England
The July DMP survey was conducted between 8 and 22 July and received 2,497 responses.
Annual private sector output price inflation in the DMP was 7.6% in the three months to July, 0.5 percentage points higher than in the three months to June. The single month figure for July was 7.9%, up from 7.5% in June. Expected year-ahead annual output price inflation was 6.3% in the three months to July, up from 6.1% the previous month (the single month data was 6.6%, 0.3 percentage points higher than in June).
Over the 12 months to July, average unit costs were estimated to have increased by 9.6%. Over the next 12 months, firms expected unit cost growth to be 8.2%, on average. Average wage growth was reported to have been 5.5% over the 12 months to July, and was expected to be 5.2% over the next 12 months.
Perceptions of current CPI inflation averaged 9.2% in the July survey, broadly in line with the official ONS CPI inflation rate, which increased from 9.1% to 9.4% on 20 July. Looking ahead, DMP members expected CPI inflation to be 7.3% one-year ahead and 4.1% in three years’ time.
The percentage of non-labour inputs being disrupted fell to 14% in July, from 16% in June.
Recruitment difficulties remained widespread. In July, 87% of firms reported they were finding it harder to recruit new employees compared with normal. Of those, 60% reported that it was ‘much harder’, 6 percentage points lower than in June.
Employment growth over the 12 months to July was 4.7%, unchanged from the figure for June. Over the next 12 months, firms expect employment to increase by 1.8%, down from 2.4% in June and 3.7% in March.
The level of overall business uncertainty edged up in July. 62% of respondents reported that uncertainty for their business was ‘high’ or ‘very high’ at the moment, 4 percentage points higher than in June. Uncertainty relating specifically to the conflict in Ukraine and to Brexit eased in July, with the percentage of respondents ranking each as a top-three source of uncertainty down 2 percentage points and 5 percentage points respectively. Uncertainty relating to Covid increased slightly in July, with 23% of respondents citing it as a top three source of uncertainty, up from 18% in June.