- UK Wage Growth Leaves No Room for Respite as it Continues to be Outpaced by Inflation
The latest ONS estimates suggest the annual growth rate of average weekly earnings was 5.5 per cent in the 3 months to July, consistent with what our tracker predicted last month.
Today’s estimates also suggest that real regular pay in the UK fell by 2.8 per cent, marginally lower than the record fall in the second quarter but remains one of the highest falls on record.
NIESR’s wage tracker now predicts that average weekly earnings will grow at 6.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year.
The figures today show the largest disparity in public and private sector wages outside of the pandemic period, where private sector regular pay grew by 6 per cent while regular pay in the public sector grew by 2 per cent.
The UK unemployment rate was 3.6 per cent in the three months to July, the lowest rate since 1974. The fall in the unemployment rate was driven largely by a rise in the inactivity rate.
The latest figures suggest the labour market might be losing some of its momentum, with the number of job vacancies in the three months to August period falling by 34,000, the largest quarterly fall in two years.