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A Growth-Accounting Perspective on the Post-Pandemic Economy
FRB of St. Louis 2022.09.29 원문보기
Much of our economic future depends on the growth rate of the nation‘s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP). For example, the profitability of firms and, therefore, trends in stock prices will depend in good part on this growth rate, as will the average tax rate we pay. Lower tax rates also tend to create more incentives for work and investment, both of which promote higher economic growth.

The long-run growth rate of real GDP itself depends importantly on the growth rate of labor productivity, or output per hours worked. Labor productivity growth over time depends on several factors, such as technological improvements and additions to the capital stock. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports nonfarm labor productivity, a commonly used measure of output per hours worked.

Some economists use a growth-accounting framework to analyze the contributions to real GDP growth from productivity and labor inputs. Implicit in this accounting are factors such as new ideas, the level of technology, and enhancements to worker skill levels that are important to economic growth. The importance of labor input follows a standard economic formulation of the production process that transforms inputs (including technology) into outputs. Declining labor input can easily cancel out improvements in productivity growth, leaving real GDP growth unchanged or even lower than before.
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