- Global Economic Outlook
The inflationary impulse and uncertainty created by Russia’s war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and loose monetary and fiscal policies in response to Covid-19, which has resulted in tighter monetary policy globally, and China’s slowdown continue to contribute adversely to economic prospects globally. Our forecast shows higher inflation and slower growth in 2023 than previously. Our forecast for global GDP growth for 2023 has been revised down from 2.8 per cent in our Summer GEO to 2.5 per cent, mainly driven by the major advanced economies and commodity importers among emerging economies. We expect slightly stronger GDP growth, at 3 percent, in 2024.
In our baseline forecast, we project recessions in Russia and Ukraine in 2022 and 2023, with the consequences of the war also leading to recession in Germany. In addition, our outlook for the US economy borders on a recession in 2023, after the two successive quarters of falling GDP in the first half of this year. With the continued economic challenges, global recession risks are heightened.