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Weaker GDP Growth, Inflation Uncertainty Dim U.S. Economic Outlook
FRB of St. Louis 2022.11.25 원문보기
The pace of economic activity has been uneven this year. After declining at annual rates of 1.6% and 0.6% in the first quarter and second quarter of 2022, respectively, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a stronger-than-expected 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. Growth in the third quarter was unusually brisk because of a large contribution from real net exports―the largest in 42 years, in fact. However, the boost from net exports is likely to reverse over the near term because the Federal Reserve Board’s real broad dollar index, a trade-weighted measure of the dollar against a basket of currencies, was at a 37-year high in October, and global economic growth, particularly in Europe and China, is weakening.

The battle against high inflation remains front and center for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers. Through the first 10 months of 2022, the all-items consumer price index (CPI) increased at an annual rate of 7.7%, while the core CPI―which excludes food and energy prices―increased at an annual rate of 6.2%. Thus, with inflation far above the FOMC’s 2% target,2 the committee has increased its target range for the federal funds rate by 375 basis points since March 2022, and it now stands at 3.75% to 4%. Policymakers have signaled that further increases in the target range are likely.
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