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Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - May 2023
Bank of England
2023.06.02
Realised output price inflation slightly decreased to 7.6% in the three months to May. Year-ahead output price inflation was expected to be 5.4% in the three months to May, down from 5.5% in the three months to April. Similarly, there was a decrease from 5.9% to 5.1% in the more volatile single month data between April and May. Businesses expect output price inflation to fall over the next year. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

In May, one-year ahead CPI inflation expectations ticked up to 5.9%, up from 5.6% in April. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations slightly increased to 3.5% in May, from 3.4% in April. Note that the May DMP survey closed before the latest CPI inflation release on 24 May.

In May, 54% of firms reported that the overall level of uncertainty facing their business was high or very high. This is the second consecutive month where overall uncertainty has increased, although the levels are still well below those seen in the second half of 2022. On the contrary, price uncertainty fell slightly on the month, although the level remains significantly above pre-pandemic averages.

Realised annual investment growth has fallen back to around 5% over recent months, but expected investment growth ticked up in May. Three-month average expectations for year-ahead investment growth increased to around 5%, having been slightly negative around the turn of the year.