According to the May Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), the consensus predicts that headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation will slow further in 2023, but that the decline in core inflation will be slower. The consensus predicts that headline (all items) inflation will slow to 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 from a year earlier but that core inflation (all items except for food and energy) will slow to 3.7%.
The projected smaller decline in core inflation is consistent with the fact that it tends to be more persistent (“stickier”) than headline inflation. Headline inflation is generally more volatile because of swings in food and energy prices.
Slow progress on the inflation front also appears to be the view of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). In his press conference following the May 2-3 FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that “the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go. (PDF)” But how long?