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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Navigating Global Divergences
IMF
2023.11.08
The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000?19) average of 3.8 percent. Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.

Monetary policy actions and frameworks are key at the current juncture to keep inflation expectations anchored. Chapter 2 documents recent trends in inflation expectations at near- and medium-term horizons and across agents. It emphasizes the complementary role of monetary policy frameworks, including communication strategies, in helping achieve disinflation at a lower cost to output through managing agents’ inflation expectations. Given increasing concerns about geoeconomic fragmentation, Chapter 3 assesses how disruptions to global trade in commodities can affect commodity prices, economic activity, and the green energy transition.