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Housing Finance Watch (Week 48, 2023)
AEI
2023.12.07
The median purchase rate dropped by another 1/8 ppts. to 7.0% in week 48.
Mortgage News Daily reported a daily avg. 30-year rate of 7.11% on December 4th.
Purchase volume was down 44% from the same week in 2019 and down 32% YTD compared to 2019.
Y-o-y HPA was 5.1% in October 2023 and is projected to remain around 5% for November 2023, December 2023, and the first half of January 2024.
Despite the subdued rate of purchase activity and historically high rates, y-o-y HPA has begun to accelerate. This is because buyers are well-qualified and highly motivated by a historically tight supply. Rising, yet still low unemployment rates, low levels of foreclosures in most areas, work from home, and continued home price arbitrage opportunities help provide support for HPA.