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Did the 2018 Trade War Improve Job Opportunities for US Workers?
In 2018, after many decades of lowering barriers to international trade, the United States embarked on a wave of protectionism, unilaterally raising tariffs on imports from many of its major trade partners. Tariffs were levied in several rounds, covering approximately 12 percent of total US imports by the end of 2018. One of the central justifications offered for this unprecedented shift in trade policy was that it would boost the competitiveness of the US manufacturing sector and protect US manufacturing jobs. This was a common theme during the Trump presidency. In response to the US tariffs, the United States’ main import partners―starting with China, then followed by Mexico, Turkey, the European Union, Canada, and Russia―all levied retaliatory tariffs on US exports. By the end of 2018, retaliatory tariffs had covered approximately 8 percent of the United States’ total exports. Did US tariffs achieve the goal of improving job opportunities for US workers? Our research suggests that they did not; instead, the evidence suggests that the tariffs decreased total US jobs.
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