본문 내용으로 건더뛰기

KDI 경제정보센터

ENG
  • Economic

    Information

    and Education

    Center

최신자료
The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced
NBER
2024.03.07
Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are perhaps the most influential economic policy analyses today. My paper evaluates their development, natural associations, logical consequences, and economic identification. All five SSP baseline scenarios are predicting scenarios that historical time-series analysis would consider empirically highly implausible. This alternative ― econometric time-series analysis based on worldwide IPAT components ― suggests alternative emission scenarios, mapping into expected radiative forcing of about RCP 6.5, with a reasonable plausibility range from RCP 4.5 to RCP 7.0.