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AI and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Historical Developments in Other Technologies
FRB of St. Louis
2024.04.05
Productivity growth is an important measure of economic well-being. With higher productivity, an economy produces more output for the same amount of input―for example, hours worked. This results in higher standards of living through a wide range of positive outcomes for the economy, such as higher compensation and higher tax revenue.

In recent years, U.S. productivity growth has been significantly lower than average growth from 1930 to 2000. (See the figure below.) Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) with large language models (such as ChatGPT, Claude and Llama) present a ray of optimism for future productivity growth.