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Forecasting for monetary policy making and communication at the Bank of England: a review
Bank of England
2024.04.15
In July 2023 I accepted an invitation from the Court of Directors of the Bank of England to review economic forecasting at the Bank, with a particular emphasis on how forecasting can better support policymaking and communication during times of high uncertainty and structural change. This report is the product of that review. Earlier official reviews of the Bank’s forecasting include Stockton (2012)Opens in a new window and Independent Evaluation Office (2015). I build to some extent on that earlier work. However, in light of the passage of time and, especially, the challenging economic environment of recent years, a fresh look at the construction and use of economic forecasts at the Bank seems timely.

In the process of conducting the review, I solicited a wide range of views. With the able assistance of Melissa Davey and her colleagues in the Bank’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO), including Michael Lever and Sophie Stone,footnote[1] as well as of Sam Boocker, my research assistant at the Brookings Institution, I conducted some 60 interviews of individuals and small groups. Interviewees associated with the Bank included all current MPC members, selected past MPC members, senior Bank staff, the independent chairs of the Bank’s Citizens’ Forums, and Bank Agents (who serve as regional representatives and information gatherers for the Bank). Separately, the IEO team, Boocker, and I also hosted a series of working lunches with representative groups of Bank staff from different divisions and at all levels of seniority.