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To What Extent Has the Recovery and Resilience Facility Supported the EU Recovery from Covid?
NIESR
2024.05.14
The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) was set up to finance public investments and reforms in EU countries that would improve their longer-term resilience while, in the short run, helping them to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic.

In this Topical Feature, we use NiGEM to assess the extent to which the RRF supported the EU recovery from Covid-19.
The analysis suggests that RRF disbursements up to the end of 2023 will result in EU GDP being 0.23 per cent higher in the fourth quarter of this year than it would have been in the absence of RRF spending.
RRF disbursements had stronger effects in the Southern and Eastern countries than in countries that contribute more to the EU GDP.
Our NIGEM simulations also suggest that the initial disbursements lowered unemployment in the European Union, though only by around 0.12 percentage points relative to what it would have been in the absence of the RRF. We found this overall fall in unemployment to be driven mainly by falls in the southern European MSs of Greece, Italy and Spain.
Finally, we found short-run multipliers of around 0.5 for most EU countries and for the European Union as a whole, though for Belgium, Czechia and Hungary, the short-run multiplier was greater than one. That is, the 220.8 billion euros of RRF disbursements to the end of 2023 will have added roughly 110 billion euros to EU GDP over the four years 2021 to 2024.
We expect the long-run multipliers associated with the RRF to be much larger than the shortrun multiplier given that both the public investment and structural reforms associated with the RRF should lead to an increase in EU productivity in the long run.