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From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War
AEI
2024.05.14
A plausible pathway exists for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to employ coercion on a mass scale to force the Republic of China government to accept Beijing’s demands without sparking a large regional war and without endangering the PRC’s global grand-strategic objectives.
Too little attention is dedicated to the PRC’s coercion capabilities, while the PRC’s military capability to invade Taiwan remains the core focus of strategies to defend Taiwanese autonomy.
A short-of-war coercion campaign can generate conditions to provide the PRC with several avenues that could translate PRC coercive activities into political outcomes that enable the PRC to gain political control over Taiwan.
The US, Taiwan, and a global coalition of states are entirely capable of developing adequate countermeasures to deter and defeat a PRC coercion campaign targeting Taiwan through immediate action and close coordination.