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전망·동향
Housing Finance Watch (Week 19, 2024)
AEI
2024.05.17
The median purchase rate decreased from 7 1/8% to 6.99% in week 19, 2024.
According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 6.99% on May 15th.
Purchase volume was down 39% from the same week in 2019 and down 8% YoY, while purchase volume for the last 4 weeks of 2023 was down 32% compared to 2019.
Preliminary y-o-y HPA was 5.7% in Mar. 2024. It is projected to be around 6% for Apr., May, and the first three weeks of Jun 2024.
Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, y-o-y HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified.
As interest rates have moved sharply higher since mid-2022, no cash-out volume has disappeared almost entirely.
Cash-out volume has also contracted sharply due to higher rates, but has hovered between 30,000 to 44,000 loans since November 2022. This is down over 80% from a peak of 250,000 loans in October 2021.
For the mortgage industry, the market recovered slightly in February. Total agency loan volume in February 2024 (refi and purchase loans combined) was 234,000, up 23% from 190,000 in January 2024 and up 12% YoY. This represented the highest level since Nov 2023 as a robust start for the 2024 spring buying season.