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An analysis of postpandemic inflation in 11 economies
PIIE
2024.05.20
In a collaborative project with ten central banks, Bernanke and Blanchard investigate the causes of the pandemic-era global inflation, building on their work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due primarily to supply disruptions and sharp increases in the prices of food and energy; however, the inflationary effects of these supply shocks have not been persistent, in part due to the credibility of central bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the resulting rises in nominal wages, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In a number of countries, including the United States, curbing wage inflation and returning price inflation to target may require a period of modestly higher unemployment.