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The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth
BIS
2024.05.27
This paper analyses the causal impact of macroprudential policies on growth, using industry-level data for 89 countries for the period 1990 to 2021. The small industry size creates an exogenous identification and avoids reverse-causality. I find that macroprudential tightening measures have a negative impact on manufacturing growth, but only for industries with high external finance dependence. This effect is stronger during banking crises, periods of higher output growth and for advanced economies. The e§ect is weaker during period of high private credit growth. Growth effects on externally dependent industries are economically sizeable and can persist over three years.