본문 내용으로 건더뛰기

KDI 경제정보센터

ENG
  • Economic

    Information

    and Education

    Center

한국관련자료
Global Economic Prospects, June 2024
World Bank
2024.06.12
Despite an improvement in near-term prospects, the global outlook remains subdued by historical standards. In 2024-25, growth is set to underperform its 2010s average in nearly 60 percent of economies, comprising over 80 percent of the global population. Downside risks predominate, including geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, higher-for-longer interest rates, and climate-related disasters. Global cooperation is needed to safeguard trade, support green and digital transitions, deliver debt relief, and improve food security. In EMDEs, public investment can boost productivity and catalyze private investment, promoting long-run growth. Comprehensive fiscal reforms are essential to address ongoing fiscal challenges in small states, including those arising from heightened exposure to external shocks.

Global growth is projected to hold steady at 2.6 percent this year. Given continued inflationary pressures, central banks are likely to remain cautious in easing policy; accordingly, benchmark policy interest rates are envisaged to be notably higher than before the pandemic. Global growth over the forecast horizon is expected to remain lackluster, at nearly half a percentage point below its 2010-19 average. High debt and elevated debt-servicing costs highlight the need for EMDE policy makers to balance sizable investment needs with fiscal sustainability. To bolster long-term growth, policy action to raise productivity growth, improve public investment efficiency, build human capital, and close labor market gender gaps is critical.