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Recent Trends in Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Exposure
Due to societal and economic changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, segments of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector have increasingly become the focus of policymakers and analysts concerned with financial stability. More specifically, the shift to work from home has challenged the office segment, while changes in retail trade―such as a ramp up in e-commerce―have prompted a negative outlook for property segments like suburban shopping malls. These negative trends in property value fundamentals may eventually trigger delinquencies and defaults on the debt backed by these types of assets.
In previous research, we showed that almost 40% of CRE-backed debt is held by U.S. banks. Additionally, our last blog post showed that a measure of exposure to assets backed by CRE seemed to be negatively correlated with the stock market value of different U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) in recent years, whereas no such correlation existed in the past. In this blog post, we study some recent trends in U.S. BHCs’ exposure to CRE.
In previous research, we showed that almost 40% of CRE-backed debt is held by U.S. banks. Additionally, our last blog post showed that a measure of exposure to assets backed by CRE seemed to be negatively correlated with the stock market value of different U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) in recent years, whereas no such correlation existed in the past. In this blog post, we study some recent trends in U.S. BHCs’ exposure to CRE.
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