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ITALY’S LOST DECADES: TRADE, CAPITAL FLOWS AND CURRENCY CRISIS, 1861-1883
Italy after its Unification in 1861 adopted a very aggressive policy of state-building funded by foreign capital. The GDP grew but Italy experienced a financial crisis which could have led to an Argentinian-style default. Italy had to let the lira float but succeeded to avoid default by adopting a prudent fiscal policy. Imports of capital dried up and the Italian economy stagnated until the end of the century. This paper analyses the causal relations between fiscal policies, imports of capital and economic performance with an open economy model. The short-term effects of the imports of capital on the real economy were small at best and the long run benefits of the post-Unification policies are questionable.
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