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A Changing Policy Mix - NIESR
With the global economy on the verge of a gradual shift in policy mix, we forecast GDP growth to moderate at around 3 per cent this year and next. The combination of tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy has kept the global economy resilient to economic and geopolitical challenges, while contributing to falling inflation in advanced economies. This policy mix is about to change, with many central banks having already reduced, or signalled a possibility of reducing, policy rates. In contrast, fiscal policies will be constrained due to higher borrowing costs and surging debt levels following years of fiscal stimulus. Overall, we forecast global GDP growth to remain lacklustre at 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025.
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