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Back to the future: Can the government reduce its debt again?
The United States faces a long-term fiscal problem: Spending threatens to outrun revenues by such a large margin that the ratio of public debt to the size of gross domestic product (GDP) could increase inexorably. High debt will erode future generations’ living standards, hinder policymaking, and threaten national security. The good news is that the U.S. has successfully reduced debt several times in the past. The bad news is that previous fixes were too small to solve the current problem. Fixing the debt problem now requires far more substantial and sustainable policy changes than ever attempted.
Currently at 99%, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise persistently―without any changes to policy―to 166% in 2054. Maintaining the 99% ratio 30 years from now would require a combination of permanent tax increases and spending cuts equal to 2.65% of GDP (about $750 billion per year) if implemented in 2025, or larger if enacted begin later, according to recent work by Gale and Alan Auerbach. If Congress makes permanent the temporary provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the figures above rise to 229% and 4.3% (about $1.2 trillion), respectively. The nation’s fiscal challenges are enormous.
Currently at 99%, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise persistently―without any changes to policy―to 166% in 2054. Maintaining the 99% ratio 30 years from now would require a combination of permanent tax increases and spending cuts equal to 2.65% of GDP (about $750 billion per year) if implemented in 2025, or larger if enacted begin later, according to recent work by Gale and Alan Auerbach. If Congress makes permanent the temporary provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the figures above rise to 229% and 4.3% (about $1.2 trillion), respectively. The nation’s fiscal challenges are enormous.
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