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Wage Growth Continues to Slow in June - NIESR
Growth in average weekly earnings slightly eases, with growth in regular pay recording 5.4 per cent in Q2 2024, and 4.5 per cent if we include bonuses. With inflation falling, these figures represent a 1.6 per cent increase in real pay, meaning workers will see a continued improvement in their standard of living.
Total wage growth is expected to reach 4.8 per cent in Q3 2024 for regular pay, and 4.3 per cent if we include bonuses. We expect pay growth to continue gradually slowing as the labour market cools in the coming months.
Unemployment recorded 4.2 per cent in Q2 2024, a slight decrease from the last quarter, although LFS estimates remain volatile and therefore should be treated with caution.
The number of vacancies continues to fall, indicating that the labour market continues to cool, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Despite signals of labour market cooling, the persistence of wage growth together with sticky underlying inflation means the Bank of England may remain cautious regarding further interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, the slowdown in service sector wage growth this month is a positive sign for underlying inflation.
Total wage growth is expected to reach 4.8 per cent in Q3 2024 for regular pay, and 4.3 per cent if we include bonuses. We expect pay growth to continue gradually slowing as the labour market cools in the coming months.
Unemployment recorded 4.2 per cent in Q2 2024, a slight decrease from the last quarter, although LFS estimates remain volatile and therefore should be treated with caution.
The number of vacancies continues to fall, indicating that the labour market continues to cool, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Despite signals of labour market cooling, the persistence of wage growth together with sticky underlying inflation means the Bank of England may remain cautious regarding further interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, the slowdown in service sector wage growth this month is a positive sign for underlying inflation.
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