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The Costless Disinflation of 2022-24
Global inflation rose in 2021 and continued to rise well into 2022. The FRED chart below illustrates this rise in inflation for the U.S., euro area, United Kingdom and Canada. In the U.S., for example, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inflation began rising in February 2021, peaking at a year-over-year level of 7.1% in June 2022, well above the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2% target for that inflation metric.
Analysts generally attributed such increases to factors related to economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including disruptions in global supply chains and labor markets, as well as fiscal and monetary policies designed to ameliorate the economic effects of pandemic-related job losses and business shutdowns.
In fact, the U.S. economy did not experience large output losses or increases in unemployment during the 2022-24 disinflation, which began after inflation peaked in June 2022. This unusual behavior raises questions: What typically happens during a disinflation? How unusual was the U.S. experience in 2022-23―when the country saw the sharpest drops in monthly inflation―compared with historical patterns or other countries’ experiences during their recent episodes?
Analysts generally attributed such increases to factors related to economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including disruptions in global supply chains and labor markets, as well as fiscal and monetary policies designed to ameliorate the economic effects of pandemic-related job losses and business shutdowns.
In fact, the U.S. economy did not experience large output losses or increases in unemployment during the 2022-24 disinflation, which began after inflation peaked in June 2022. This unusual behavior raises questions: What typically happens during a disinflation? How unusual was the U.S. experience in 2022-23―when the country saw the sharpest drops in monthly inflation―compared with historical patterns or other countries’ experiences during their recent episodes?
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