최신자료
Networked authoritarianism and economic resilience in Syria
Economic networks have long been central to the regime’s survival strategy. Since the start of the conflict, however, the Assad regime has placed increasing weight on those economic networks. Business cronies closely tied to Assad have played crucial roles in sanctions avoidance, securing essential goods, concealing assets, and enabling the elite to maintain its privileged lifestyle in the face of economic collapse. Over time, Assad and his inner circle have become adept in managing crony networks to keep the regime afloat, adjusting who’s in and who’s out to ensure that the money continues to flow.
As Assad discovered in 2019, however, when his cousin and once-trusted bag man Rami Makhlouf resisted turning over assets accumulated in part on Bashar’s behalf, cronies have minds of their own. To recover what was reported to be billions in assets, Assad oversaw the systematic dismantling of Makhlouf’s economic holdings. In the aftermath of his confrontation with Makhlouf, Assad has moved to secure direct control over the former’s economic empire, dramatically restructuring the informal networked ecosystem he depends on. These changes, visible for the first time through our analysis of firm-level micro-data and open-source research, offer important insights into the inner workings of the upper reaches of the Assad regime and how conflict has transformed Syria’s political economy. This restructuring helps to explain Assad’s economic resilience in the midst of the economic crisis, why he has rejected step-for-step diplomacy despite its promised economic payoffs, and how the regime has been able to navigate a vast web of sanctions that directly target regime networks―networks that countries imposing sanctions and struggling to reach a political settlement fail to understand.
As Assad discovered in 2019, however, when his cousin and once-trusted bag man Rami Makhlouf resisted turning over assets accumulated in part on Bashar’s behalf, cronies have minds of their own. To recover what was reported to be billions in assets, Assad oversaw the systematic dismantling of Makhlouf’s economic holdings. In the aftermath of his confrontation with Makhlouf, Assad has moved to secure direct control over the former’s economic empire, dramatically restructuring the informal networked ecosystem he depends on. These changes, visible for the first time through our analysis of firm-level micro-data and open-source research, offer important insights into the inner workings of the upper reaches of the Assad regime and how conflict has transformed Syria’s political economy. This restructuring helps to explain Assad’s economic resilience in the midst of the economic crisis, why he has rejected step-for-step diplomacy despite its promised economic payoffs, and how the regime has been able to navigate a vast web of sanctions that directly target regime networks―networks that countries imposing sanctions and struggling to reach a political settlement fail to understand.
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