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Post-COVID inflation in Emerging Europe
Inflation increased considerably in most countries in the immediate aftermath of the COVID pandemic and, by the end of 2023, has subsided considerably, if not returned to levels consistent with price stability already. This inflation hump was, rightly, a global concern, especially for the central bankers of advanced economies who were out of practice in combating high inflation. Central bankers in the euro area, U.S., and U.K., among others, were traumatized by inflation nearing or surpassing double digits, albeit briefly. Even Japanese inflation showed signs of life after three decades of deflationary concerns. Our post-COVID inflation narrative is shaped by the experience of advanced economies.
This is surprising. Advanced economies have not seen inflationary pressures of this kind since the 1970s. Inflation, for the most part, was an emerging market issue until the 21st century―when it ceased to be an issue in emerging markets as well, barring a few exceptions―and was discussed as such. How has post-COVID inflation played out in the emerging world? This paper looks at the Emerging Europe subsample to answer the question.
This is surprising. Advanced economies have not seen inflationary pressures of this kind since the 1970s. Inflation, for the most part, was an emerging market issue until the 21st century―when it ceased to be an issue in emerging markets as well, barring a few exceptions―and was discussed as such. How has post-COVID inflation played out in the emerging world? This paper looks at the Emerging Europe subsample to answer the question.
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