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Household Belief Formation in Uncertain Times
How does uncertainty influence how households form beliefs about the economy? In this paper we investigate the effect of heightened uncertainty in the post-pandemic economy on households‘ inflation belief formation. First, we document a decline in households‘ belief rigidity at the pandemic‘s onset, attributed to households seeking information to navigate a more uncertain economic landscape. Second, we document an increase in households‘ belief rigidity during the subsequent period of high inflation, driven by a deterioration in the accuracy of information, further increasing uncertainty. Overall, we demonstrate that belief rigidity can help distinguish between sources of uncertainty, with opposite effects on information frictions and macro-finance real outcomes, such as the Phillips Curve.
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