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Housing Finance Watch (Week 37, 2024)
The median purchase rate decreased from 6.13% to 6.05% in week 37, 2024.
According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 6.12% on Sept. 17th.
Purchase volume was down 34% from the same week in 2019, and down 8% YoY. Despite the recent rate drop, volume did not rise and continued its downward seasonal trend.
Preliminary YoY HPA was 4.8% in July 2024. It is projected to be 4.6%, 4.2%, and 4.3%, for Aug. 2024, Sept. 2024, and the first two weeks of Oct. 2024, respectively.
Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, YoY HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified.
Our base HPA projection calls for y-o-y HPA of +5% and +5.5% by year-end 2024 and 2025 respectively.
As interest rates have moved sharply higher since mid-2022, no cash-out volume has disappeared almost entirely.
Cash-out volume has also contracted sharply due to higher rates, but has hovered between 30,000 to 44,000 loans since November 2022. This is down over 80% from a peak of 250,000 loans in October 2021.
For the mortgage industry, the market began a seasonally driven volume decline in June, following the summer peak in May. Total agency loan volume in June 2024 (refi and purchase loans combined) was 270,000, down 8% from 295,000 in May 2024 but up 16% YoY. Based on our analysis of Optimal Blue data, this is a continuation of the typical seasonal purchase loan trend, if perhaps a month ahead of schedule.
According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 6.12% on Sept. 17th.
Purchase volume was down 34% from the same week in 2019, and down 8% YoY. Despite the recent rate drop, volume did not rise and continued its downward seasonal trend.
Preliminary YoY HPA was 4.8% in July 2024. It is projected to be 4.6%, 4.2%, and 4.3%, for Aug. 2024, Sept. 2024, and the first two weeks of Oct. 2024, respectively.
Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, YoY HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified.
Our base HPA projection calls for y-o-y HPA of +5% and +5.5% by year-end 2024 and 2025 respectively.
As interest rates have moved sharply higher since mid-2022, no cash-out volume has disappeared almost entirely.
Cash-out volume has also contracted sharply due to higher rates, but has hovered between 30,000 to 44,000 loans since November 2022. This is down over 80% from a peak of 250,000 loans in October 2021.
For the mortgage industry, the market began a seasonally driven volume decline in June, following the summer peak in May. Total agency loan volume in June 2024 (refi and purchase loans combined) was 270,000, down 8% from 295,000 in May 2024 but up 16% YoY. Based on our analysis of Optimal Blue data, this is a continuation of the typical seasonal purchase loan trend, if perhaps a month ahead of schedule.
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