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What Wasn‘t Sanctioned? Why Russia and the West Continued Trading amid the Russia-Ukraine War
Russia and the West imposed tough economic sanctions on one another during the initial phase of the Russia-Ukraine war, hoping to change the other side’s political calculus.
Because the war has lasted longer than either party expected, both have come to tolerate substantial volumes of trade in many commodities, including gas, aluminum, titanium, and uranium, illustrating the constraints on each side’s willingness to incur costs.
Both sides overestimated the sanctions’ impact on their adversaries’ decision-making around the war.
We should not overestimate sanctions’ utility in shaping China’s political calculus in any future crisis.
Because the war has lasted longer than either party expected, both have come to tolerate substantial volumes of trade in many commodities, including gas, aluminum, titanium, and uranium, illustrating the constraints on each side’s willingness to incur costs.
Both sides overestimated the sanctions’ impact on their adversaries’ decision-making around the war.
We should not overestimate sanctions’ utility in shaping China’s political calculus in any future crisis.
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