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The Calm Before the Budget: Growth Awaiting Fiscal Clarity - NIESR
NIESR
2024.10.14
Monthly GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in August, following no growth in July. This monthly figure was supported by marginal growth from all 3 main sectors - production, services and construction output. In addition, GDP grew by 0.2 percent on a three-month-on-three-month basis in August.

Recent ONS revisions edged down GDP growth by 0.1 in the second quarter of 2024 to 0.5 per cent. While this does not significantly impact this year’s overall growth outlook, taken with higher-frequency indicators, it does suggest a loss of momentum relative to the first half of the year. Consequently, we project the economy to expand by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter and an early forecast of 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Ahead of this month’s budget, a consistent theme is emerging across businesses― pre-budget policy uncertainty. It is imperative that the upcoming policies to be announced by the Chancellor, not only foster business confidence but also address the challenges that have hindered long-term economic growth and put growth on a more sustainable footing.