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The Effects of Higher US Tariffs
This study examines the macroeconomic impacts of higher import tariffs in the United States on the US, China and global economies, using the National Institute’s Global Macroeconometric Model, NiGEM.
Our scenarios include an increase in US import tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and 10 per cent on imports from all other economies, with subsequent retaliatory tariffs from US trading partners. We also run simulations with only a temporary rise in tariffs (and retaliation) and where we assumed there was no monetary policy response.
The results show that US GDP growth would decrease by around 1.3 to 1.8 percentage points over the next two years, depending on whether trade partners retaliate. This is shown in figure TF1, which also gives some idea of the uncertainty around our central estimate. Cumulatively, US real GDP could be up to 4 per cent lower than it would have been without the imposition of tariffs. The inflation rate also increases sharply in the United States by around 3.5 to 5 percentage points.
China’s GDP growth would also decline by around 1 per cent over two years, while US tariffs may reduce Chinese inflation in the case where China does not retaliate.
Higher US tariffs also reduce global GDP growth by around 1 per cent over the next two years as shown in figure TF2, which again gives some idea of the uncertainty around our central estimate. Over five years, global GDP and world trade would be 2 per cent and 6 per cent lower, respectively, with varying impacts on individual economies depending on their trade relations with the United States.
Mexico would be the hardest hit country due to its close trade ties with the United States, followed by small open European economies whose real GDP would be around 3 to 5 per cent lower five years after the tariffs.
Our scenarios include an increase in US import tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and 10 per cent on imports from all other economies, with subsequent retaliatory tariffs from US trading partners. We also run simulations with only a temporary rise in tariffs (and retaliation) and where we assumed there was no monetary policy response.
The results show that US GDP growth would decrease by around 1.3 to 1.8 percentage points over the next two years, depending on whether trade partners retaliate. This is shown in figure TF1, which also gives some idea of the uncertainty around our central estimate. Cumulatively, US real GDP could be up to 4 per cent lower than it would have been without the imposition of tariffs. The inflation rate also increases sharply in the United States by around 3.5 to 5 percentage points.
China’s GDP growth would also decline by around 1 per cent over two years, while US tariffs may reduce Chinese inflation in the case where China does not retaliate.
Higher US tariffs also reduce global GDP growth by around 1 per cent over the next two years as shown in figure TF2, which again gives some idea of the uncertainty around our central estimate. Over five years, global GDP and world trade would be 2 per cent and 6 per cent lower, respectively, with varying impacts on individual economies depending on their trade relations with the United States.
Mexico would be the hardest hit country due to its close trade ties with the United States, followed by small open European economies whose real GDP would be around 3 to 5 per cent lower five years after the tariffs.
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