최신자료
Immigration and the macroeconomy after 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have offered starkly different visions for immigration policy.
To assess the likely economic implications of these proposals, the authors forecast inflows and outflows of immigrants under a high- and low-immigration scenario for each candidate.
These migration flows are then used to estimate the likely effect of immigration policies on GDP growth in 2025 and over a 10-year period.
Overall, differences in immigration policy alone could cause GDP growth in 2025 to be roughly half a percentage point―or $130 billion―lower in a second Trump administration than under a Harris administration.
To assess the likely economic implications of these proposals, the authors forecast inflows and outflows of immigrants under a high- and low-immigration scenario for each candidate.
These migration flows are then used to estimate the likely effect of immigration policies on GDP growth in 2025 and over a 10-year period.
Overall, differences in immigration policy alone could cause GDP growth in 2025 to be roughly half a percentage point―or $130 billion―lower in a second Trump administration than under a Harris administration.
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