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The dynamic effects of green and non-green technology shocks on emissions and the macroeconomy
We use restrictions derived from frontier models of directed technical change to identify green and non-green technology shocks in a Bayesian structural VAR of the U.S. economy. We require that both shocks jointly explain the bulk of the longer-run variation of total factor productivity and fossil fuel energy intensity. In addition, the fossil energy income share is restricted to decline following a green and to increase after a non-green technology shock. We find that green technology shocks are associated with a persistent reduction of the carbon emission intensity of output but a substantial rebound of per capita emissions. The reason is that these shocks lead to a delayed but pronounced increase of output which gives rise to substantial additional fossil fuel consumption and new emissions. Green technology shocks are associated with a substitution of fossil fuel end-use to electricity, much of which has historically been generated using fossil fuels.
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