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KDI 경제교육·정보센터

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최신자료
Disaster Risk, Inequality, and Fiscal Sustainability
ADB
2024.11.12
This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on budgetary sustainability and inequality.
Using panel data, the findings suggest that rising climate-related disaster risks raise government debt and undermine fiscal sustainability, with low-income households bearing the brunt of the impact. According to a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, disaster risk generates recessions and increases inequality, particularly among “hand-to-mouth” agents. The paper also shows a considerable increase in sovereign debt due to disaster risk, and it recommends targeted transfers while cautioning against the fiscal cost of progressive taxes.