국제무역
With Inflation Falling, Workers Continue Making Real Income Gains - NIESR
Growth in average weekly earnings continues to ease, recording 4.8 per cent for regular pay in Q3 2024. Total pay growth (including bonuses) recorded 4.3 per cent, which is affected by base effects from the one-off public sector bonus payments last year.
For Q4 of this year, we forecast a slight uptick in both total and regular pay growth to 5.0 per cent due to base effects.
With inflation falling, annual growth in real regular pay remains strong at 2.2 per cent in September, meaning workers will see a continued recovery in their standard of living.
Unemployment rose to 4.3 per cent, and employment slightly increased to 74.8 per cent. However, it is worth nothing that LFS data remain volatile, and therefore should be treated with caution.
We forecast unemployment to remain slightly above the 4 per cent mark through the coming months but remains below its natural rate.
As vacancies continue to fall, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is now close to pre-pandemic levels, leading to a reduction in wage pressures.
Growth in services sector wages has notably fallen in recent months, recording 4.1 per cent in Q3, compared to an average of 5.6 per cent in the first half of this year. This is positive news for inflation and might provide the Bank of England with increased confidence regarding interest rate cuts.
For Q4 of this year, we forecast a slight uptick in both total and regular pay growth to 5.0 per cent due to base effects.
With inflation falling, annual growth in real regular pay remains strong at 2.2 per cent in September, meaning workers will see a continued recovery in their standard of living.
Unemployment rose to 4.3 per cent, and employment slightly increased to 74.8 per cent. However, it is worth nothing that LFS data remain volatile, and therefore should be treated with caution.
We forecast unemployment to remain slightly above the 4 per cent mark through the coming months but remains below its natural rate.
As vacancies continue to fall, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is now close to pre-pandemic levels, leading to a reduction in wage pressures.
Growth in services sector wages has notably fallen in recent months, recording 4.1 per cent in Q3, compared to an average of 5.6 per cent in the first half of this year. This is positive news for inflation and might provide the Bank of England with increased confidence regarding interest rate cuts.
많이 본 자료
![[팀튜링의 디지털 오디세이] 제1화 UAM의 미래](/userdata/main/incContent/sideLink/19/aaaGHKBjsPPI5g31szc-y20240605110816byhta.png)
![[2024.04] 물가상승](/userdata/main/incContent/sideLink/20/aaaGHKBjsPPI5g31szc-y20240605111046bpogp.jpg)
