G20 Report, Strong, Sustainable, Balanced, and Inclusive Growth (November 14, 2024) | 국외연구자료

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G20 Report, Strong, Sustainable, Balanced, and Inclusive Growth (November 14, 2024)

IMF

2024.11.18

The medium-term growth outlook for most G20 economies is at its weakest in decades. The global economy has proven to be resilient throughout the disinflationary process though momentum has slowed over the past year. Growth is expected to remain stable in the short term, but mediumterm growth prospects remain lackluster, with five-year-ahead growth in most G20 economies expected to be weaker than pre-pandemic averages. Persistent structural headwinds, notably subdued productivity growth, reinforced in some countries by adverse demographic trends, continue to hold back potential growth in several G20 advanced and emerging market economies. Geoeconomic fragmentation and rising protectionism, high public debt, and excessive greenhouse gas emissions pose significant risks to the sustainability of growth. While some domestic and external imbalances persist, progress on inclusion is stalling. Among African Union (AU) economies, medium-term growth is expected to recover and return to pre-pandemic averages. However, many challenges to short-term sustainability and inclusion remain across the AU.

- A renewed emphasis on credible medium-term fiscal consolidation is urgently needed to avoid disruptive adjustments.
- Targeted structural reforms are essential to boost productivity.
- Multilateral cooperation is key to lifting medium-term growth prospects and addressing global challenges.

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