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Sustaining Compliance with Fiscal Rules: A Future at Risk?
Fiscal rules in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries rarely have fixed objectives, exhibiting significant heterogeneity in design and implementation. This document analyzes how different factors influence the ease or difficulty of compliance with these rules and introduces an update of the Compliance dataset, highlighting new trends. The updated dataset shows that fiscal rule compliance in the region is sensitive to economic conditions, with a notable peak in 2022 due to favorable circumstances. However, the seemingly high compliance in 2022 was largely driven by favorable conditions, masking underlying vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the decline in 2023 and the emerging risks of non-compliance in 2024. This pattern suggests that compliance can sometimes misrepresent both short-term and long-term fiscal health. The analysis underscores the need to rethink fiscal rule frameworks to ensure long-term discipline and coherence with fiscal commitments. A new classification of rules in LAC can help understand compliance dynamics, close the gap between short- and long-term fiscal objectives, and identify specific characteristics to improve. This document emphasizes the necessity for targeted reforms to enhance the resilience and effectiveness of fiscal frameworks in the LAC region.
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