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Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?
Bank of Canada
2024.11.29
We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies―event studies, vector autoregressions, and regional panel regressions using granular data―and establish a null result. The key economic mechanism works through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation through the usual demand channel. We illustrate this negative supply-side channel both theoretically and empirically.