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AI and the Future of Work: Opportunity or Threat?
Although the AI economics “doomsday” narrative is alive and well, the results of these early studies tend to be generally positive for workers: Productivity is not only increased, but the productivity gap between the least- and most-skilled workers is reduced. And yet, human expertise is still needed to judge the quality of AI output. To be clear, it is too early to make judgments about how this will affect income inequality; we will know more as AI technology is adopted more widely and as more data become available.
Like all technologies, AI will likely displace some of the jobs done by humans, and it will likely change the list of tasks for many more jobs. But if the past is any guide, we’ll find that human innovation and insatiability will result in the development of new products and services that consumers want to buy. Many workers will likely be employed in jobs and fields that don’t even exist today: Autor also found that more than 60% of employment in 2018 was in job titles that did not exist in 1940. Indeed, after centuries of technological change, in most years we find the economy is long on jobs and short on workers. This time will likely be no different.
Like all technologies, AI will likely displace some of the jobs done by humans, and it will likely change the list of tasks for many more jobs. But if the past is any guide, we’ll find that human innovation and insatiability will result in the development of new products and services that consumers want to buy. Many workers will likely be employed in jobs and fields that don’t even exist today: Autor also found that more than 60% of employment in 2018 was in job titles that did not exist in 1940. Indeed, after centuries of technological change, in most years we find the economy is long on jobs and short on workers. This time will likely be no different.
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