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AEI Housing Market Indicators, November 2024
Purchase volume in 2024 week 48 was up 13% YoY and down 33% from the same week in 2019.
Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA in October 2024 Remains Robust at 4.4%.
Institutional Investors are Not the Main Driver for Home Price Growth
· Institutional investors (portfolios of 100+ homes) account for a small share (0.9%) of the single-family residential market. 16.7% of single-family homes are owned by mom-and-pop investors (portfolios of 10 or fewer homes).
· In most of the nation (96% of all counties), institutional investor owned homes account for less than 2% of the entire single-family stock. 14 metros (including Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Tampa) account for 50% of all investor owned homes in the nation.
Average Total and Housing Debt-to-Income (DTI) for Purchase Loans
· Total DTIs, or TDTIs (calculated on pre-tax income) have been trending up for Fannie, Freddie, and FHA, indicating increasing housing debt burden. Given the low supply, increasing TDTIs are helping to fuel home price appreciation.
Builder’s Response to Rising Rates: Mortgage Rate Buydowns
· Home builders are continuing to buy down mortgage rates to offset rising rates and keep months’ supply from rising even further.
· While virtually all of the largest builders are offering buydowns, DR Horton and Lennar are generally the most aggressive.
· Rate buydowns by builders have helped sustain new home prices.
An Analysis of First-Time Homebuyer Assets and Months’ Reserves
· FHA borrowers have very low net reserves (after subtracting the down payment, closing costs, and any gifts). For FTBs with no reserves, mortgage payments are about 40-50% higher than rent payments, while DTIs are fairly high. This leaves little financial wiggle room to cover unexpected expenses, not to mention save.
· After controlling for income, FHA FTBs assets don’t vary much by race. This suggest that income is more important than race when it comes to becoming a FTB.
Year-over-Year (YoY) HPA in October 2024 Remains Robust at 4.4%.
Institutional Investors are Not the Main Driver for Home Price Growth
· Institutional investors (portfolios of 100+ homes) account for a small share (0.9%) of the single-family residential market. 16.7% of single-family homes are owned by mom-and-pop investors (portfolios of 10 or fewer homes).
· In most of the nation (96% of all counties), institutional investor owned homes account for less than 2% of the entire single-family stock. 14 metros (including Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Tampa) account for 50% of all investor owned homes in the nation.
Average Total and Housing Debt-to-Income (DTI) for Purchase Loans
· Total DTIs, or TDTIs (calculated on pre-tax income) have been trending up for Fannie, Freddie, and FHA, indicating increasing housing debt burden. Given the low supply, increasing TDTIs are helping to fuel home price appreciation.
Builder’s Response to Rising Rates: Mortgage Rate Buydowns
· Home builders are continuing to buy down mortgage rates to offset rising rates and keep months’ supply from rising even further.
· While virtually all of the largest builders are offering buydowns, DR Horton and Lennar are generally the most aggressive.
· Rate buydowns by builders have helped sustain new home prices.
An Analysis of First-Time Homebuyer Assets and Months’ Reserves
· FHA borrowers have very low net reserves (after subtracting the down payment, closing costs, and any gifts). For FTBs with no reserves, mortgage payments are about 40-50% higher than rent payments, while DTIs are fairly high. This leaves little financial wiggle room to cover unexpected expenses, not to mention save.
· After controlling for income, FHA FTBs assets don’t vary much by race. This suggest that income is more important than race when it comes to becoming a FTB.
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