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Immigration and the Macroeconomy in the Second Trump Administration
Few issues dominated the 2024 presidential contest like immigration. In this analysis, we consider likely paths for net migration during president-elect Trump’s second term and their macroeconomic implications.
The starting point for our analysis is the creation of a “high immigration” and a “low immigration” scenario. These scenarios reflect a combination of the historical record under the first Trump administration, the incoming administration’s announced immigration policies, as well as our judgment of likely developments. They are constructed from the ground up, starting by predicting inflows from specific visa categories, border and parole policy, and entries without inspection. We also predict removals, reflecting both the Trump campaign’s positioning and logistical constraints as well as other factors that affect outflows.
We provide two scenarios given the considerable uncertainty about policy actions as well as responses by migrants. We think of the scenarios as spanning the range of plausible policy actions, something like the 20th percentile of resulting net flows (“low”) to the 80th percentile (“high”).
The starting point for our analysis is the creation of a “high immigration” and a “low immigration” scenario. These scenarios reflect a combination of the historical record under the first Trump administration, the incoming administration’s announced immigration policies, as well as our judgment of likely developments. They are constructed from the ground up, starting by predicting inflows from specific visa categories, border and parole policy, and entries without inspection. We also predict removals, reflecting both the Trump campaign’s positioning and logistical constraints as well as other factors that affect outflows.
We provide two scenarios given the considerable uncertainty about policy actions as well as responses by migrants. We think of the scenarios as spanning the range of plausible policy actions, something like the 20th percentile of resulting net flows (“low”) to the 80th percentile (“high”).
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